Showing posts sorted by relevance for query betfair odds. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query betfair odds. Sort by date Show all posts

Tuesday, 3 February 2009

System Performance

With the thaw down south well under way and with only 1 meeting on at Southwell today I thought i would post up a couple of links to some spreadsheets uploaded to 4 share last night.

The first of these details the performance of the thread started on Punters Lounge at the arse end of November 2008 in which I wanted to test the viability and back - tested nature of some systems created from a horse racing database. . The profits the systems were showing in the last four seasons were simply staggering and with around 20,000 separate pieces of data to rely on then surely there was some truth in the back testing? Even showing just 1/2 the amount of profit or even a third would be enough to create a handsome living, effectively credit crunch resisant to boot. Only time would tell.

The start of the trial was immediately a downward spiral. The starting bank was set as 400 points and at on 30th December '08 nearly 80 points were lost!! Had I really been so wrong with my figures?

I'd expected long losing runs with it being a set of long shot systems but looking back at previous data the biggest monthly loss was 65 points so I was prepared to take the loss and move on. Thankfully there was a decent sized winner that day and the month finished at -40 points.

What followed was a series of on/off days and the big freeze at the beginning of January that killed off all turf racing for a week. The systems were going nowhere fast. Then something magical happened on the 13th January a triple figure winner!! It was 66/1 at the bookies but 200/1 on betfair!! WoW!! Over the past month and a half hemorrhaging points had become a hobby for the systems but all of a sudden there was 157 points profit staring me in the face. At this point I was seriously shocked at having such a big winner and for a £2 punter this was like winning the horse racing lotto. O.k. maybe not but it sure felt good to be in profit and having a losing set of systems turned into a winning set I felt vindicated.

Then things went on the slide again punctuated by a few small-ish wins here and there and then on 29th January (last week) another 100 plus winner rode over the horizon and really boosted profits!!! January went by and 241 points profit with an ROI of 105% had totally turned things around.

With the February freeze claiming all the meetings again things have ground to a halt once more but I for one am seriously looking forward to the ups and downs to come.

Despite the thread on Punters Lounge being turf only I had also developed some AW systems which I decided not to trial on punters lounge due to the odds capture being way different I felt it would be confusing to follow the thread. However here is the detailed spreadsheet showing the in the January 2009 period. It makes for quite interesting reading. Well it does for me at least but I hope someone who struggles with horse racing gambling might find it useful as the end result was a profit of 274 points for January.

Since I first started my quest I have tweaked the parameters of some systems and created new ones for the flat season to come. One tweak that I have undertaken lately is to change the odds capture on the National Hunt Flat system that so nicely provided a 126/1 winner last week. For a £2 punter it would be easy to place all bets at Betfair Sp and have done with it but I want to keep things real and if at any time in the future I manage to build a bankroll and be in the position to be placing much larger bets e.g. £50 a point then on the higher end of the odds-scale betfair sp is going to become redundant as the liquidity for such a bet isn't going to be there. So the experiment has moved on and the bets are placed before the off in an attempt to beat betfair sp. In fact the 126/1 winner last week traded at 170 before the off. I have had mixed success with with this strategy but I have almost always been able to get prices close to BFSP if I have been under and I have been able to massively beat BFSP when I have been over. Hence playing live with larger amounts is going to swing in roundabouts but the end results will be on a par with using BFSP. Now I seem to have meandered past the point so bear with me while I get back on track.

The National Hunt Flat system was showing large amounts of qualifiers in each race which was proving to be a nightmare in a live situation trying to get the best odds on 8 horses in a 16 runner race was difficult and using larger stakes would be a complete nightmare so I decided to look at the odds ranges and change the qualifiers odds range from 7/1 to 100/1 (bookie sp) to 18/1 to 100/1 (bookie sp). Therefore, now its much easier to concentrate on just the top half of the odds table on the betfair screen. I thought it would hurt profits in the long term and quite honestly it will but I can honestly say after running it through the database its a very small sacrifice in the overall scheme of things and its much easier to manage getting even my miserly £2's on.

I've a few qualifiers for southwell today so I'll post a P&L later on or maybe in the morning. There have been no winners for the system so far today but as the longest losing run can hit 100 I guess I'm not in the least bit phased.

Till next time.

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1 Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
National Hunt Flat Races: SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell): SP 7/1 to 33/1 AW Southwell: SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf: SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Friday, 13 February 2009

How Best To Stake Mr Bond's Free System

A quick reminder of the overall stats of this racing system can seen in the screenshot. With average win odds of 7.61 or (6.61 with the stake removed) it is not surprising that there is a fairly low strike rate. With the right bank and plain ole level staking the system has shown a return on investment (total profit divided by total stakes) of over 35% which in business terms is huge. For every £1 invested on average a profit of 35p was returned. Put it this way if I gave £1.35 back to you every time you gave me a £1 you'd be running all over the shop to get your hands on as many pounds to give me as possible right? If I only gave you £1.06 back each time would you still be as willing to give me your £1's? A pro gambler would definitely do it believe me.

O.k. I digress. What's it all got to do with betting banks and staking? Well ROI is a good measure of how successful an investment strategy is. The racing system has produced an exceptionally high ROI which indicates there's plenty of lee-way for making profit.

By examining the spreadsheet it's possible to recognise that the most the system ever lost over an extended number of bets (1,000 +) was 30 points. The longest losing run was 26. Given these statistics it would be prudent to build in a margin of error. So let's take our largest running loss and double it to 60 points. Our longest losing run? Double it to 52. O.k. Now let's add some extra padding so that we don't lose our nerve after an extended losing run. Let's set the bank at 100 points. So if you have £1000 burning a hole in your pocket the stake per bet would work out as £1000 divide by 100 or in gambling speak £10 per point.

Put that into perspective and realise that by starting with £1000 it's possible to have the worst losing run the system has ever had. Let's just say the losing run was 60 points or £600. For someone not used to it, having just £400 left after a bad run is going to find betting the next selection psychologically challenging to say the least. Putting the next bet on would be torture, the temptation to bet on the favourite instead of the next system selection is going to be mightily appealing. For that reason I would recommend that a "newbie" start with 150 points and a seasoned bettor start with 100 points. The very high risk merchants would start with 50 points (good luck!!).

Having further evaluated the selections and compared them to Betfair Sp something else jumped right out at me. Apart from only being able to check back to the beginning of 2008 I've noticed that on many of the lower odds qualifiers there wasn't much value in taking a betfair price at all. Why could that be? Betfair prices usually far outstrip bookies Sp even for the more fancied horses and especially on the outsiders. Then it struck me. Most of these selections were being heavily backed before the off. Most of these were steaming in!! Bingo..

What it indicates to me at least is that taking an early price is more than likely to pay dividends and boost profits significantly!! How to do this? Well simple really, forget betfair and just hunt for the best prices at the bookies at around 10.30 a.m. whenever you have a qualifier. The other alternative is to use bookies with best odds guaranteed offers. They will give you a higher price than SP. For instance if the Sp was 10/1 they will give you odds of 11/1 or the next odds step relative to the returned sp of your particular qualifier. Doing this will significantly boost your profits.

So to recap, seasoned bettors start with a 100 point bank and take bookie prices early in the day or place bets at best odds guaranteed. But it doesn't end there. If you want to know how to magically TREBLE your profits then I will quite easily show you how!!! Just add your name and email to the newsletter form below this post and I will send you all the details.

If anyone would like to run and track this system from day to day on this very blog then please get in touch using the contact form.

Monday, 18 May 2009

System Performance May 11th to May 17th

Here's a refresher on last week: System Performance May 4th to May 10th

A bit different this week! Overall a profit of 293 points to level stakes.

Here's the tally:

Betfair odds including 30 and under @ £50 a point: +13.17 x £50 = +£658.50

Betfair odds over 30 @ £25 a point: +280.57 x £25 = +£7014.25

A total of +£7,672.75

On to the year to date figures, this puts things firmly back on track. The new total is £13,166.75. How will the month end? The level stakes profit for the month is now +237.09. Higher or lower?

Tuesday, 17 February 2009

1st 2nd 3rd & 4th

Just after telling the GF that the system was due some medium sized winners this year, the universe responded and a nice 25/1 winner romped home by 6 lengths in the 15:20 at Taunton this afternoon. In fact the system also picked out 3rd and 4th placed horses Miss Midnight and Wasn't Me.

In the 16:50 the day almost became an exceptional one when Dew Drop Inn challenged for the lead but it just wasn't to be, especially since I'd got 20's before the start of the race and was looking to make up some of the shortfall from the weekend. Funnily enough Sawpit Sunset and Posh Emily were there to mop up for us if either of the first two failed to finish.

The rest of the afternoon was pretty uneventful but nevertheless a decent profit was made on the day. Is the month's loss about to be reversed?

Given the relative success on the day with a 25/1 winner I thought I'd do a comparison test for the last 5 years using an odds cutoff point of bookies S/P 25/1.

Here's the results at 1 point level stakes to betfair prices minus 5% commission and immediately underneath the same profit to bookies SP for the same year.

2005: 2,947 qualifiers, 215 winners, Betfair profit : 1,203 points
Profit to Bookie SP: 387 points

2006: 3,183 qualifiers, 223 winners, Betfair profit: 774 points
Profit to Bookie SP: 19 points

2007: 3,342 qualifiers, 258 winners, Betfair profit: 1,367 points
Profit to bookie SP: 446 points

2008: 3598 qualifiers, 279 winners, Betfair profit: 1,390 points
Profit to bookie SP: 411 points

2009 (up to and including Feb 17th): 424 qualifiers, 36 winners Betfair profit: 85 points
Profit to Bookie SP: 15 points

Thursday, 26 February 2009

Free Horse Racing System No. 2

I said I'd do it and I have, I must be mad. That's 2 free systems and almost 500 points at SP in the last 5 years for FREE.

If you're an experienced bettor the system rules are shown to the left and you can get the selections from the racing post or horseracebase. If you're new to the blog then you might like to familiarise yourself with the following post detailing the last free system rules and HRB setup information.

This time were are dealing with handicaps in Jump racing codes but the theme of the system is similar to the flat system before. The theme is fitness and odds values. We are basically outsmarting the majority punter's view on the race by spotting the value in the odds that were missed by the said majority.

Horses that placed 3rd 4th and 5th last time out and the fallers (an inevitable part of jump racing), unseated riders and those horses that were pulled up etc. Most of these will go off "underbet" or at value prices on their next outing. Add these factors together and watch for the trainer running them at peak fitness.

We are looking for the trainer to enter them quickly (within 5 days of their last race) to capitalise on a horse that is likely peaking in fitness. We are also looking for horses that have had more than 5 runs in the last year thereby proving they are race fit (not too frequently raced though). The last part of the system deals with experienced horses. 3 and 4 year olds are not considered for this system due to having much less experience compared to other older runners.

Here's the basic screenshots for setting up in HRB (follow the 9 tick boxes). More detailed instructions can be found once again in the post detailing the previous free system.

There's one more tick-box, right next to the GO button.

Now that there's two free systems to start you off it would be nice to take a look at the past performance and betting strategies to use. As with the other free system it would be a huge advantage to take the early prices on the lower priced qualifiers. I can't prove it without running live tests but I would be 90% sure to beat the sp prices on most of the winners. Also the systems both use a cutoff value at SP of 4/1 below which the prices become break even or even worse a loss. I do know for a fact that there will be selections that start well below our value point which will have been available at much higher prices earlier in the day.

传奇sf手机版By getting a price above 4/1 for a runner that goes off under 4/1 should be left in play as the value is automatically inherent in the selection although it might not be an official qualifier. This happened last week and the selection went on to win. Or you could decide to just scalp the value by having a free bet or what's commonly known as a back to lay. Maybe you backed a horse at 7/1 early price and then notice it's 3/1 on betfair just before the off. You could lay off for the same stake and scalp the value in a free bet. There are many ways to use this approach.

传奇sf手机版On the 18/1 and over selections it would be wise to place a bet at betfair sp or just place the bet a minute or so before the off because the betfair prices on these is usually way higher on average thus giving guaranteed value in the bet. Even so the profit from both systems has been over 450 points to just ordinary SP bets.

So then here's a detailing each bet to SP and included is a ratchet staking plan that would have returned over £40,000 in 5 years from an initial investment of £1k. Don't forget to put me on your Christmas card list!

传奇sf手机版Related posts:

The Best Kept Racing Systems Builder "Secret" On The Net

How To Use Hrb With James Bond's Free System

How Best To Stake Mr Bond's Free System

Free Money, Fill Yer Boots!!

Tipster Or Not To Tipster - That Is the Question

Saturday, 21 February 2009

Scalping The Value

Not too bad a day yesterday a very small profit achieved e.g. less than a point ha ha. There were a couple of standout moments to mention firstly with a huge gamble on Charmels Lad in the 2:30 Southwell. I managed to get on at 32 and watched as the odds tumbled right the way down to around 12 which the made it a non qualifier for the system. Having ridden the value out of it I laid off at 13.5 before the off and was sitting on a risk free bet which was already worth more than betting at SP, bonus!! I had scalped the value but it wasn't to be as 5th was the best place he could manage at an SP of 10/1.

Icterus was the other notable runner (Sandown 5:05). As usual the layers piled in just before the off and pushed the price out to 360 or 370 at one point. I had gotten a nice 344 before the prices settled. The betfair sp was 216.93 so I decided to lay off in running and put up a lay @ 50's which gave me a lovely risk free bet much higher than both industry and betfair sp. Then the drama began as I watched the odds get lower and lower and lower. When the odds reached 4 I was hoping for that Christmas was coming late ha ha!! Unfortunately 4th was the outcome @ 100/1.

After that I needed something to steady the nerves. Bach was chosen.

Wednesday, 1 December 2010

Ever wanted to see a betting myth exposed but didn't have the time or enthusiasm to follow it through? How many times have you read stuff in forums, in your emails, stuff that you searched for on google and came away from it underwhelmed having not found the answer you were looking for? The powers that hold the keys to betting information like to keep this information shrouded in secrecy. We can all find the widely available info such as racing results and the SP prices returned for every horse in each race. We can buy form guides, betting books and expensive horse racing software that are supposed to cover all the angles for us. Well if they were to cover all these angles as efficiently as they claim to do then betting as an industry would not have survived at all. The punters would have cleaned them out.

However, if you're like me and you're willing to put in some time and graft then it's possible to uncover some of the answers you've wanted to know from the beginning of your quest into making a profit from horse racing betting. Watch the video and be amazed at how much money can be made by backing drifters on Betfair.

As ever, stay lucky!

Wednesday, 11 March 2009

Belters For Chelters 2

Kicking myself after yesterday as I'd arrived at a shortlist of two for the first, Kempes who put in a good show despite a blunder at the first and coming 12th. The other which I failed to write up on the blog although uhmming and aah-ing about it was Go Native the winner at 12/1. DOh!

My other fancy Planet of Sound ran a great race but could only manage 3rd behind ForPaddyThePlasterer and Kalahari King (another who made the shortlist). So that's zero from 2 for me so far.

Today a slightly different approach in looking beyond Masterminded in the Queen Mother Champion Chase who romped home by over 20 lengths last year! He's going off well odds-on this year so after looking at the race I've decided on the winner without the favourite market. 2 fancies here for me (trying to avoid yesterday's mistake lol), Twist Magic @7.2 betfair and Big Zeb @5.1 on betfair also.

For the Coral Cup (16:00) I've chosen Pause & Clause (12.5 betfair) with Great Endeavour (trying for 16.5 - not yet matched).

Tuesday, 24 February 2009

Roll And Coast

Despite the seemingly endless slow spiral downwards in the past few weeks there were some positives to yesterdays results. Many of our selections didn't produce any cigar moments but they did help to increase the torment by coming seemingly close on betfair odds in running. Firstly Sula's Legend Plumpton 14:20 2nd @ 10/1 then came The Graig Wolves 15:40 20/1 3rd. In the 15:50 the systems scored 1st 2nd and 3rd with a winner at 19.36 on betair. Later in the day in the bumper 17:00 Hereford a couple of the big prices went close in running before tailing off and another 3rd in the 17:10 at Wolves finished things off. But it wasn't enough to halt the slide as the day finished below expectation.

Todays selections will be online by 13:45. See you then.

Wednesday, 4 March 2009

Are They Mad?

The bookies like to manage their liabilities as there's always the possibilty that a complete outsider will romp to victory and create the unthinkable large payout. So you'll rarely see anything going off at over 100/1 sp. Not the same thinking on betfair though. A 100/1 shot runs at 999/1 before the off this afternoon admittedly without much of a chance of winning.

The horse in question was My Only Boy in the 17:00 Fontwell bumper. Now I don't understand laying this horse at 1000 when he beats a 12/1 and a 16/1 shot into 7th place no matter how unlikely it is that he would have won. It was still possible.

Today was another blank. Adamo at betfair SP 141.5 in that same race got as low as 15 in running for a stake returned free bet but only managed to finish behind My Only Boy. NUTS! The only other highlight was Alfredtheordinary who was well backed and fell below the odds threshold which allowed me to scalp the value before the off for a nice winning free bet although not a very big one.

looks like tomorrows selections will be online around 14:00. Stay lucky.

Bak 2 da oldskewl

Saturday, 7 February 2009

Racing Selections Feb 7th

EDIT: 1:00pm. Apologies I posted todays selections mixed with tomorrows now corrected. Ta.
With non runners and cancelled meetings yesterday was a complete short price day. If you've been reading the previous posts you'll know that I don't bet on anything that is under 7/1 at the off so there wasn't much doing yesterday at all and those horses that did run in the preferrred odds range didn't give us a winner, but no biggie.

On to today and again there are plenty of non runners to be aware of and odds ranges to bear in mind with each system.

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1 Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1 National Hunt Flat Races: SP 18/1 to 100/1 AW (Not southwell): SP 7/1 to 33/1 AW Southwell: SP 18/1 to 100/1 Flat Turf: SP 18/1 to 100/1
Results to Betfair SP

Wednesday, 22 April 2009

Racing Selections Apr 22nd

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Looking lots again. But odds ranges will soon
whittle it all down to size. Stay lucky! JB

Friday, 17 April 2009

Racing Selections Apr 17th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

It looks a lot but the odds ranges will whittle it down.

Stay lucky! JB

Monday, 13 April 2009

Racing Selections Apr 13th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Blinkin aida! Loads on! The list will diminish
somewhat by the end of the day though given the odds ranges for each system.

Stay lucky! JB

Saturday, 28 March 2009

Racing Selections Mar 28th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Don't forget the odds ranges for the flat turf are 18/1 to 100/1.
Stay lucky! JB

Monday, 2 March 2009

A Monday To Remember

Feeling way hung-over today I wasn't expecting too much to happen. How wrong could I be? A nice 24 pointer in the first at Lingfield followed by a 13 pointer at Stratford finishing with a 21 pointer at Wolves!!! Here's how I fared on betfair betting before the off: 20, 20 and 24! So all in all a fantastic day. 38+ points after tax is the official systems total and March has gone off with a big bang! Coupled with the 20 odds points from the 1st of March I make that 58 or so points in 2 days.

I think that the big one I sensed on Saturday translated into a series of smaller ones and hey I'm not complaining, the universe truly delivers! Anyone who's been following along so far will know that I tend to post the free selections fairly close to race time to account for any non runners. But they are always posted before racing. If you are thinking of following with small stakes and a decent sized points bank (300 minimum 400 advised) then please help yourself. I have around 20,000 system qualifiers on my spreadsheets that tell me the system isn't profitable just by chance.

The database indicates the first system selections for Tuesday 3rd march are at Southwell 14:10. I expect to post the final selections by 13:45. Stay lucky!

System Performance Feb '09 YTD

Just to clarify a few things before beginning. A week or so ago I was comparing my spreadsheets back with the database when I noticed the two were slightly out-of-whack. I decided to wait till month end to correct the figures on the blog.

Firstly February P&L.

Slightly crap but no disaster is how I would sum February up. Given the devastation to racing caused by "environmental factors" at the beginning of the month it should be no surprise to learn the the month is down. In terms of £25 per point I would put that in the region of minus £914.80 after 5% betfair tax. I have been constantly mentioning the missing big odds winners and they are still missing.

Going back to January, I had originally reported a profit of 274 points but after having checked the database the profit for January was actually slightly smaller at 263.38 points after tax.
Not a huge difference but a difference nonetheless. Add that to February's loss and a figure of 226.79 points is arrived at. Given the ROI/POT stands at 28% from 797 bets I'm very pleased so far. As mentioned in the last post a profit year to date of £5,669.00 to £25 level stakes.

Here's two spreadsheets with all the figures. The 1st one shows the and the second shows the profit with a £10,000 starting bank and for 2009 year to date. Ok I admit there's a lot of bets there and quite a handful to manage on a daily basis. If you decide to join my mailing list I'll give you some pointers on how to manage and make a handsome profit. Let's see how March fares. Cheltenham next week and the start of the flat at the end of the month.

Saturday, 21 February 2009

Blankety Blank

No sign of Terry or Les (showing my age there), just a blank day.

The only thing I can say is the layers were trying to give it away today and it's a shame our pick came 2nd. I'll quickly explain: The betfair sp for Cashel Blue was 29.64 and there was only 3/4 of a length in it. That wasn't the only odds mismatch I saw today.

Just like to say thanks to Jake for sending this email earlier:

Thursday, 5 February 2009

Pretty Good Day Today

O.k. So Wolves and Huntingdon both abandoned and Just Southwell and Taunton left. As ever with our qualifiers for Southwell and with so many non runners today the lower cut-off price of 18/1 gave us a grand total of 5 bets all at hyper inflated odds compared to bookies SP - all losers. It was a different story over the jumps today with 5 qualifiers giving a 3rd at 14/1 a 1st at 20/1 and a second (in the same race) at 33/1!!

One lucky follower on the Punters Lounge Forum scored a reverse forecast of £39.00 with a 10p stake!!
So how did I get on?

传奇sf手机版Well I manged to get 27/1 and 40/1 on the 1st and second in the 16:20 and laid them both off at evens in running. In doing so I also managed to beat betfair sp by quite a way on both selections.

I did see Young Tot trade at 270/1 before the off which is pretty good going for a horse that returned a bookie Sp of 80/1. He didn't have too bad a race either despite being pulled up. Here are the sportinglife results comments:

prominent, chased leader 3rd, ridden and weakened 3 out, pulled up before 2 out

Not sure about the rest of the weeks weather so let's hope that we get some racing in before next week otherwise it's going to look very bleak especially after the BHA added some extra Jumps meetings into to February to allow the younger horses a run or three to be able to qualify for the bigger meetings.

Something nice and relaxing for the musical aficionados: