Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Bookie Sp. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Bookie Sp. Sort by date Show all posts

Tuesday, 17 February 2009

1st 2nd 3rd & 4th

Just after telling the GF that the system was due some medium sized winners this year, the universe responded and a nice 25/1 winner romped home by 6 lengths in the 15:20 at Taunton this afternoon. In fact the system also picked out 3rd and 4th placed horses Miss Midnight and Wasn't Me.

In the 16:50 the day almost became an exceptional one when Dew Drop Inn challenged for the lead but it just wasn't to be, especially since I'd got 20's before the start of the race and was looking to make up some of the shortfall from the weekend. Funnily enough Sawpit Sunset and Posh Emily were there to mop up for us if either of the first two failed to finish.

The rest of the afternoon was pretty uneventful but nevertheless a decent profit was made on the day. Is the month's loss about to be reversed?

Given the relative success on the day with a 25/1 winner I thought I'd do a comparison test for the last 5 years using an odds cutoff point of bookies S/P 25/1.

Here's the results at 1 point level stakes to betfair prices minus 5% commission and immediately underneath the same profit to bookies SP for the same year.

2005: 2,947 qualifiers, 215 winners, Betfair profit : 1,203 points
Profit to Bookie SP: 387 points

2006: 3,183 qualifiers, 223 winners, Betfair profit: 774 points
Profit to Bookie SP: 19 points

2007: 3,342 qualifiers, 258 winners, Betfair profit: 1,367 points
Profit to bookie SP: 446 points

2008: 3598 qualifiers, 279 winners, Betfair profit: 1,390 points
Profit to bookie SP: 411 points

2009 (up to and including Feb 17th): 424 qualifiers, 36 winners Betfair profit: 85 points
Profit to Bookie SP: 15 points

Tuesday, 3 February 2009

System Performance

With the thaw down south well under way and with only 1 meeting on at Southwell today I thought i would post up a couple of links to some spreadsheets uploaded to 4 share last night.

The first of these details the performance of the thread started on Punters Lounge at the arse end of November 2008 in which I wanted to test the viability and back - tested nature of some systems created from a horse racing database. . The profits the systems were showing in the last four seasons were simply staggering and with around 20,000 separate pieces of data to rely on then surely there was some truth in the back testing? Even showing just 1/2 the amount of profit or even a third would be enough to create a handsome living, effectively credit crunch resisant to boot. Only time would tell.

The start of the trial was immediately a downward spiral. The starting bank was set as 400 points and at on 30th December '08 nearly 80 points were lost!! Had I really been so wrong with my figures?

I'd expected long losing runs with it being a set of long shot systems but looking back at previous data the biggest monthly loss was 65 points so I was prepared to take the loss and move on. Thankfully there was a decent sized winner that day and the month finished at -40 points.

What followed was a series of on/off days and the big freeze at the beginning of January that killed off all turf racing for a week. The systems were going nowhere fast. Then something magical happened on the 13th January a triple figure winner!! It was 66/1 at the bookies but 200/1 on betfair!! WoW!! Over the past month and a half hemorrhaging points had become a hobby for the systems but all of a sudden there was 157 points profit staring me in the face. At this point I was seriously shocked at having such a big winner and for a £2 punter this was like winning the horse racing lotto. O.k. maybe not but it sure felt good to be in profit and having a losing set of systems turned into a winning set I felt vindicated.

Then things went on the slide again punctuated by a few small-ish wins here and there and then on 29th January (last week) another 100 plus winner rode over the horizon and really boosted profits!!! January went by and 241 points profit with an ROI of 105% had totally turned things around.

With the February freeze claiming all the meetings again things have ground to a halt once more but I for one am seriously looking forward to the ups and downs to come.

Despite the thread on Punters Lounge being turf only I had also developed some AW systems which I decided not to trial on punters lounge due to the odds capture being way different I felt it would be confusing to follow the thread. However here is the detailed spreadsheet showing the in the January 2009 period. It makes for quite interesting reading. Well it does for me at least but I hope someone who struggles with horse racing gambling might find it useful as the end result was a profit of 274 points for January.

Since I first started my quest I have tweaked the parameters of some systems and created new ones for the flat season to come. One tweak that I have undertaken lately is to change the odds capture on the National Hunt Flat system that so nicely provided a 126/1 winner last week. For a £2 punter it would be easy to place all bets at Betfair Sp and have done with it but I want to keep things real and if at any time in the future I manage to build a bankroll and be in the position to be placing much larger bets e.g. £50 a point then on the higher end of the odds-scale betfair sp is going to become redundant as the liquidity for such a bet isn't going to be there. So the experiment has moved on and the bets are placed before the off in an attempt to beat betfair sp. In fact the 126/1 winner last week traded at 170 before the off. I have had mixed success with with this strategy but I have almost always been able to get prices close to BFSP if I have been under and I have been able to massively beat BFSP when I have been over. Hence playing live with larger amounts is going to swing in roundabouts but the end results will be on a par with using BFSP. Now I seem to have meandered past the point so bear with me while I get back on track.

The National Hunt Flat system was showing large amounts of qualifiers in each race which was proving to be a nightmare in a live situation trying to get the best odds on 8 horses in a 16 runner race was difficult and using larger stakes would be a complete nightmare so I decided to look at the odds ranges and change the qualifiers odds range from 7/1 to 100/1 (bookie sp) to 18/1 to 100/1 (bookie sp). Therefore, now its much easier to concentrate on just the top half of the odds table on the betfair screen. I thought it would hurt profits in the long term and quite honestly it will but I can honestly say after running it through the database its a very small sacrifice in the overall scheme of things and its much easier to manage getting even my miserly £2's on.

I've a few qualifiers for southwell today so I'll post a P&L later on or maybe in the morning. There have been no winners for the system so far today but as the longest losing run can hit 100 I guess I'm not in the least bit phased.

Till next time.

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1 Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
National Hunt Flat Races: SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell): SP 7/1 to 33/1 AW Southwell: SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf: SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Friday, 13 February 2009

How Best To Stake Mr Bond's Free System

A quick reminder of the overall stats of this racing system can seen in the screenshot. With average win odds of 7.61 or (6.61 with the stake removed) it is not surprising that there is a fairly low strike rate. With the right bank and plain ole level staking the system has shown a return on investment (total profit divided by total stakes) of over 35% which in business terms is huge. For every £1 invested on average a profit of 35p was returned. Put it this way if I gave £1.35 back to you every time you gave me a £1 you'd be running all over the shop to get your hands on as many pounds to give me as possible right? If I only gave you £1.06 back each time would you still be as willing to give me your £1's? A pro gambler would definitely do it believe me.

O.k. I digress. What's it all got to do with betting banks and staking? Well ROI is a good measure of how successful an investment strategy is. The racing system has produced an exceptionally high ROI which indicates there's plenty of lee-way for making profit.

By examining the spreadsheet it's possible to recognise that the most the system ever lost over an extended number of bets (1,000 +) was 30 points. The longest losing run was 26. Given these statistics it would be prudent to build in a margin of error. So let's take our largest running loss and double it to 60 points. Our longest losing run? Double it to 52. O.k. Now let's add some extra padding so that we don't lose our nerve after an extended losing run. Let's set the bank at 100 points. So if you have £1000 burning a hole in your pocket the stake per bet would work out as £1000 divide by 100 or in gambling speak £10 per point.

Put that into perspective and realise that by starting with £1000 it's possible to have the worst losing run the system has ever had. Let's just say the losing run was 60 points or £600. For someone not used to it, having just £400 left after a bad run is going to find betting the next selection psychologically challenging to say the least. Putting the next bet on would be torture, the temptation to bet on the favourite instead of the next system selection is going to be mightily appealing. For that reason I would recommend that a "newbie" start with 150 points and a seasoned bettor start with 100 points. The very high risk merchants would start with 50 points (good luck!!).

Having further evaluated the selections and compared them to Betfair Sp something else jumped right out at me. Apart from only being able to check back to the beginning of 2008 I've noticed that on many of the lower odds qualifiers there wasn't much value in taking a betfair price at all. Why could that be? Betfair prices usually far outstrip bookies Sp even for the more fancied horses and especially on the outsiders. Then it struck me. Most of these selections were being heavily backed before the off. Most of these were steaming in!! Bingo..

What it indicates to me at least is that taking an early price is more than likely to pay dividends and boost profits significantly!! How to do this? Well simple really, forget betfair and just hunt for the best prices at the bookies at around 10.30 a.m. whenever you have a qualifier. The other alternative is to use bookies with best odds guaranteed offers. They will give you a higher price than SP. For instance if the Sp was 10/1 they will give you odds of 11/1 or the next odds step relative to the returned sp of your particular qualifier. Doing this will significantly boost your profits.

So to recap, seasoned bettors start with a 100 point bank and take bookie prices early in the day or place bets at best odds guaranteed. But it doesn't end there. If you want to know how to magically TREBLE your profits then I will quite easily show you how!!! Just add your name and email to the newsletter form below this post and I will send you all the details.

If anyone would like to run and track this system from day to day on this very blog then please get in touch using the contact form.

Thursday, 5 February 2009

Pretty Good Day Today

O.k. So Wolves and Huntingdon both abandoned and Just Southwell and Taunton left. As ever with our qualifiers for Southwell and with so many non runners today the lower cut-off price of 18/1 gave us a grand total of 5 bets all at hyper inflated odds compared to bookies SP - all losers. It was a different story over the jumps today with 5 qualifiers giving a 3rd at 14/1 a 1st at 20/1 and a second (in the same race) at 33/1!!

One lucky follower on the Punters Lounge Forum scored a reverse forecast of £39.00 with a 10p stake!!
So how did I get on?

Well I manged to get 27/1 and 40/1 on the 1st and second in the 16:20 and laid them both off at evens in running. In doing so I also managed to beat betfair sp by quite a way on both selections.

传奇sf手机版I did see Young Tot trade at 270/1 before the off which is pretty good going for a horse that returned a bookie Sp of 80/1. He didn't have too bad a race either despite being pulled up. Here are the sportinglife results comments:

prominent, chased leader 3rd, ridden and weakened 3 out, pulled up before 2 out

Not sure about the rest of the weeks weather so let's hope that we get some racing in before next week otherwise it's going to look very bleak especially after the BHA added some extra Jumps meetings into to February to allow the younger horses a run or three to be able to qualify for the bigger meetings.

Something nice and relaxing for the musical aficionados:

Tuesday, 10 March 2009

Get Ur Free Cone....

Still keeping with the monstrous humour you'll be aware of the two winners pushing the systems back near to where they were at the beginning of March. But that freakish grin indicates just how delicately balanced the profit and loss has been for what seems an absoloute age and it could continue although it would be nice for the systems to push through the plateau and climb out the other side.

So to summarise todays action, no winners at Cheltenham but Sedgefield provided the goodies and a nice 20 point profit. There was also a chance to take another winner with Gunpoint (Sedgefiled 17:25) which although not a system qualifier at the SP price, it went off at well over 9's on betfair giving the backers marvellous value on the 13/2 bookie price.